If ever there is a moment in the planning of a wedding where a crystal ball or a fortune teller would come in really handy, it's in "knowing" how many guests of any number who are invited, will actually come. So many arguments regarding guest lists could be eliminated, but such a crystal ball doesn't appear to be available. What there is, however, is a close guestimate based on the previous experiences of other bridal couples mixed in with the special circumstances surrounding each particular couple.

The first thing which can be accepted as a given is the fact that the number of guests that are invited will not be the number of guests who will respond in the affirmative and, subsequently, attend. Most wedding consultants use this rule of thumb calculation. If more than two hundred guests are invited, it can be assumed between twenty-five and twenty-eight percent will be unable to attend. If less than two hundred people are invited, the percentage usually drops to between fifteen and twenty percent who will not attend.

Some "special circumstances" that can be used to further hone the guestimate are:

1) Take distances into consideration. The greater the number of out-of-town guests and the further people need to travel long distances, the greater the number of "no's."
2) Past family history is an important consideration. Some families boast 100% attendance records at family functions, so a family's track record is important to take into consideration.
3) The expenses that guests will incur if they attend the wedding should be a part of the equation. Even if the reception isn't far away, it may be out of the way and difficult to reach by public transportation. Or, the time of day may require guests to come and stay the night before or the night after the wedding. Out of pocket expenses when not provided by the couple will influence some guests to decline the invitation.

Some consultants use the following formula. Take the number of invitations being mailed, double the invitation count, then take 65 percent and use that as the estimated head count. The bottom line is that no matter what system is used to estimate the number of guests who will attend, it must be remembered that they are all, after all, just guesses. Until the last response card comes in, the number will not be a sure thing and, even with this count in hand, there may be guests who respond in the affirmative and call to cancel before the wedding, or some who are no shows on the day of the event. To be really on the safe side, make sure that the venue can, if push comes to shove, accommodate all the guests who are being invited!

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